For a party that talks about rebuilding trust, the coalition is asking voters to assume a lot. Source: AAP
FOR a party that continually talks about rebuilding trust in politics, the coalition is asking the voting public to assume a lot.
Whether it be stopping the boats or returning to a budget surplus, Opposition Leader Tony Abbott can often be heard saying the coalition has done it before and will do it again.
It is a bit like Ewen McKenzie saying the Wallabies have won the Bledisloe Cup before and can do it again, when the reality is that they haven't come within a cooee of the All Blacks for 11 years.
Times and circumstances change.
However, the pledge to return the budget to surplus has become more vague as the September 7 election draws closer.
At the official Liberal election campaign launch last Sunday, Abbott said the budget would be on track to a "believable" surplus by the end of its first three year term, suggesting it would be later that the $4 billion surplus projected by Labor in 2016/17.
Abbott also promised to deliver surpluses of one per cent of gross domestic product (GDP) within the next decade.
Treasurer Chris Bowen picked up on this apparent change of heart.
"He previously said he would provide a surplus in year one, and then it changed to sometime over the next four years and then it changed to 'before Labor'," Bowen says.
"Now it is apparently one per cent in 10 years' time with no further detail."
But Abbott says it would be "foolish" to give an absolute guarantee on the timing of a surplus given the rapid deterioration in the budget between May and Labor's economic statement - about $3 billion a week over the four-year estimates.
"We will deliver a surplus as soon as we humanly can and we will deliver a surplus quicker and more reliable than the Labor Party," Abbott says.
Of course, part of that comment would be impossible to measure as Labor would be in opposition.
That said, Labor has hardly covered itself in glory, promising at the last election to return the budget to surplus in 2012/13 and persistently sticking to that call until last December.
It was then forced to push any move back to the black by a further four years.
"It's right we return to surplus over time, not tomorrow because it would be a hammer blow to the economy," Bowen says.
Abbott points to the enormous risks to the outlook that are indicated in the Pre-election Economic and Fiscal Outlook (PEFO) - the independent budget analysis by Treasury and Finance.
"The existing forecasts and projections were their best guess at this time," he says.
"Until we know what the starting point is, it's very hard for us to say precisely when things are going to happen."
Which is fair enough given the uncertainty in the global economy and as the Australian economy transitions from the mining investment boom to broader-based economic growth.
But then that contradicts another Abbott line.
"What I say is the economy will always be stronger under a coalition government."
Always?
What about those risks in PEFO?
PEFO says the net contribution of the resources sector to economic growth will fall, while the transition to non-mining sectors may not occur smoothly.
It says the global economy remains challenging, posing a risk to Australia's terms of trade and growth forecast, while the anticipated fall in resources investment peak could be sharper than expected.
At the same time, there is also moderating growth in emerging economies, including China and India, two of Australia's top trading partners.
The June quarter national accounts next Wednesday will be a talking point for the final week of the election campaign.
The Reserve Bank of Australia expects the report will show annual growth will be 2.5 per cent in the year to June.
However, Commonwealth Securities chief economist Craig James at this stage expects it to be slightly less at 2.4 per cent, although further data to supplement the growth result will be released over the next few days.
"Uncertainty about the election result has robbed momentum from the economy, keeping annual economic growth closer to 2.5 per cent, rather than the more 'normal' rate of 3.00-3.50 per cent," he says in a note to clients.
It will be interesting to see how "normal" life is beyond September 7.
